Networked Applications: 10 Forecasts For The Future
Wholesale Solutions
The Cisco Visual Networking Index is an ongoing initiative that
tracks and forecasts the impact of networked applications,
particularly those involving video traffic. Through its research,
the vendor is helping to both build a picture of what tomorrow’s
global IP traffic will look like and to assess its impact on
communications networks.
Here are some of Cisco’s recent predictions:
- Annual global IP traffic will exceed two thirds of a zettabyte
(667 exabytes) within four years. The economic downturn has only
slightly tempered predicted traffic growth.
- Global IP traffic will quintuple from 2008 to 2013. Overall, IP
traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
40%.
- In 2013, the internet will be nearly four times larger than it
was in 2009.
- By the end of 2013, the equivalent of 10 billion DVDs will
cross the internet each month.
- Peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic is growing in volume, but declining
as a percentage of overall IP traffic. P2P file-sharing networks
now carry 3.3 exabytes per month and will continue to grow at a
moderate pace with a CAGR of 18% from 2008 to 2013.
- internet video is now approximately one-third of all consumer
internet traffic, not including the amount of video exchanged
through P2P file sharing.
- The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, internet,
and P2P) will account for over 91% of global consumer traffic by
2013.
- internet video alone will account for over 60% of all consumer
internet traffic in 2013.
- By 2013 internet video will require a total internet backbone
capacity 700 times that of the US in 2000. Global video
communications traffic will increase tenfold from 2008 to
2013.
- Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through to
2013, increasing 66 times from 2008 levels to 2013.
Further reading
The Cisco Visual Networking Index offers a full traffic forecast
and methodology 2008-13.
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